OPTIMIZED PREDICTION TOOL FOR POST-DISCHARGE MORTALITY IN ACUTE PANCREATITIS
(OPTIMAP STUDY)
International external validation study
Dear Colleagues,
The Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group kindly invites you to participate in the international external validation of OPTIMAP, a
web-based prediction tool that estimates post-discharge mortality risk in patients hospitalized with acute pancreatitis (AP).
Background: Although in-hospital mortality of AP has decreased, patients remain at increased risk of death after discharge,
especially within the first year. Identifying those at highest risk is crucial for personalized follow-up and long-term care.
About the OPTIMAP: OPTIMAP is a machine-learning–based model developed from more than 3,000 patients in the
Hungarian Acute Pancreatitis Registry. It uses 10 simple, routinely available clinical parameters recorded at hospital
discharge to estimate the risk of post-discharge mortality.
Participating centers will be asked to:
- collect and share anonymized patient data using a standardized Excel template provided by the coordinating center,
- enter 10 routinely available clinical parameters included in the OPTIMAP web application to calculate post-discharge
mortality risk:- age
- Charlson Comorbidity Index
- serum creatinine
- pancreatitis caused by tumor
- alcohol consumption
- alcohol-induced pancreatitis
- C-reactive protein (CRP)
- blood urea nitrogen (BUN)
- length of hospitalization
- body mass index (BMI)
- additionally, provide a limited set of supplementary data in the Excel file to allow data quality checks and
representativeness analyses across participating centers (patient demographics, admission and discharge dates, etiology
and severity classification of AP, mortality outcomes).
No additional laboratory or imaging tests are required, and data entry is designed to be simple and time-efficient.
Next steps: If your center is interested in joining, please contact us. We will then provide the standardized Excel sheet,
detailed instructions, and arrange a Zoom meeting to explain the process.
Publication policy:
- Centers enrolling at least 100 patients will be granted authorship.
- Centers enrolling at least 200 patients will be granted 2 authorships.
- Centers enrolling 300 patients or more will be granted 3 authorships.
Important note: Only patients with available 1-year follow-up data on survival status can be included in the study.
We hope you will join us in this important effort to improve post-discharge care in acute pancreatitis.
For further information, please contact:
Dalma Dobszai (dobszai.dalma@gmail.com)
Yours sincerely,
Péter Hegyi
Chair
Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group